Independent scientific reviews

and official documents on 1080

Masts do not reliably predict rat or stoat eruptions

date	authors	source	name	quote
2006	Efford, M.G., Fitzgerald, B.M., Karl, B.J. & Berben, P.H.	NZ Journal of Zoology 33: 273-297	Population dynamics of the ship rat Rattus rattus L. in the Orongorongo Valley, New Zealand	“Trophic effects, both direct and indirect, and the external cues (weather) that trigger masting, are almost certain to affect the density of ship rats in these forests. However, well-monitored examples, not complicated by removal of predators (see below), are lacking, and inference of cause-and-effect relationships is inevitably confounded by temporal autocorrelation, sampling error, and seasonality.”
1983	King, C.M.	Journal of Animal Ecology 52: 141-166	The relationships between beech (Nothofagus sp.) seedfall and populations of mice (Mus musculus), and the demographic and dietary responses of stoats (Mustela erminea), in three New Zealand Forests	“Ship rats (Rattus rattus (L.)) were most abundant in the most diverse of the three forests. The density index for R. rattus increased there after the 1976 seedfall, but not after that of 1979.”
2005	King, C., Murphy, E.	pp 204-221. In King, C.M. (Ed.). The Handbook of New Zealand Mammals (2nd Edition). Oxford University Press, Melbourne. 610 pp.	Stoat	In the Orongorongo Valley, stoat numbers increased after a seedfall in 1971, but not after subsequent seedfalls”
2006	Efford, M.G., Fitzgerald, B.M., Karl, B.J. & Berben, P.H.	NZ Journal of Zoology 33:273-297	Population dynamics of the ship rat Rattus rattus L. in the Orongorongo Valley, New Zealand	“Unlike Daniel (1978), we found no overall relationship between rat population change and annual hinau or beech fruitfall…This finding leads us to evaluate critically other evidence for fruiting as a controlling influence on ship rat dynamics…We conclude there is not yet any compelling evidence for fruiting as a driver of fluctuations in rat density in podocarp/hardwood forests.”
2016	Griffiths, J.W., Barron, M.C.	NZ J Ecol. 40 (3)	Spatiotemporal changes in relative rat (Rattus rattus) abundance following large-scale pest control	“In our study, model selection indicated both beech mast and season were predictors of rat abundance indices, although the estimated effect of a mast seedfall event was weak compared to the effect of the autumn season”